WTO raises its 2026 forecast for goods trade
The WTO now projects 3.9% growth in world merchandise trade volume in 2026, up from 1.9% in its March outlook.
The World Trade Organization attributed the higher forecast to stronger trade in the first half of the year, including demand for goods used in AI infrastructure. Its October update projects 4.1% growth in merchandise trade volume in 2027.
The WTO also reported an uneven picture across regions and lowered its outlook for services trade. The global estimate is a useful backdrop for sourcing decisions, but it does not tell a buyer how much demand to expect for a specific product or route.
Why it matters
Before increasing order quantities, compare demand in the destination market with the supplier’s lead time and at least one alternative shipping route. A stronger global forecast is one input; landed cost and delivery reliability determine whether the order works.